How much honeycomb paper does each order use? A way to work it out

A distributor stocking honeycomb paper for the first time needs one number before anything else. How many rolls will each customer use in a month?

Guess too low, and the customer runs out in the middle of a sale.

Guess too high, and paper sits in a godown through the monsoon, which is bad for the paper and bad for cash. We would rather sell you less paper more often than see a year's stock go soft in a damp store.

You can work it out. Do it per item, in flat metres of paper, then multiply up. Paper per item is wraps per item × length per wrap × layers, converted from expanded metres to flat metres. Multiply that by items per order and orders per month, add a waste allowance you have measured, and divide by the flat metres on one roll. Then check the answer against real roll use for two weeks.

Nobody outside your packing room can give you this number reliably. That includes us, and we make the paper in Jaipur for customers in India and abroad.

What we can give you is the method I would use myself.

First, pick the right unit

You buy paper by the roll. You use it by the metre. So plan in metres.

I would use flat metres, i.e. the length of paper before it is pulled open. Expanded metres change with every dispenser and every packer, so they make a poor foundation for a forecast. The roll label should state the flat length. If it does not, ask your supplier to confirm it in writing. If you ask us for stock, we will talk in flat metres too.

Grams work too. A kilo of the same paper is always the same amount of paper, whatever the roll says.

The method in eight steps

1. Group your products into a few size families, such as small, medium, large and odd shapes. A handful of groups is enough. More detail rarely changes the answer.
2. For one typical item in each group, measure the length of one wrap. That is the distance around the item at its widest point, plus a small overlap so the end can be tucked in.
3. Count the layers your packers really use. Watch them pack. Do not copy the number from the packing instruction.
4. Count the wraps per item. A tall vase may need two sheets side by side, and a set of six glasses needs six.
5. Multiply wraps per item × length per wrap × layers. This gives you expanded paper per item.
6. Divide by your expansion ratio to get flat metres per item.
7. Multiply by items per order, taken from your order data, and then by orders per month.
8. Add your measured waste allowance, and divide by the flat metres on one roll.

Measuring your expansion ratio

Tear off a flat piece one metre long and mark both ends. Feed it through your dispenser, or pull it open by hand the way your packers do, and measure the opened length. Opened length ÷ flat length is your ratio.

Repeat it five times and take the average. Then ask a second packer to do the same.

You may be surprised how much two people differ.

Do not borrow anyone else's ratio. One US patent on expandable slit-sheet paper (published March 2016) describes a design that can grow by about 213% in length. Other cut patterns open far less. Our guide on what honeycomb paper is explains why the cut and the pull change the result.

A worked example

Imagine an online shop that sells ceramic mugs and bowls. Every number below is an assumption for this example, not a standard. I have kept the numbers round on purpose, so the arithmetic is easy to follow. Replace each one with your own measurement.

Now the order mix. Say the average order holds 1.5 mugs and 0.5 bowls.

Flat paper per order = (1.5 × 0.60) + (0.5 × 0.70) = 0.90 + 0.35 = 1.25 m.

Next comes waste. Say you measured 10% for first pulls that tore and wraps that were redone. That gives 1.375 m, which I would round up to 1.4 m per order.

At 3,000 orders a month, the shop uses 3,000 × 1.4 = 4,200 flat metres.

If the roll label says 250 flat metres, the shop needs 4,200 ÷ 250 = 16.8 rolls. Call it 17 rolls a month.

Measuring it on the packing line

The arithmetic gives you a first forecast. The line tells you the truth, and I trust the line more. Here are three ways to measure, from the simplest to the most exact.

1. The roll count. When a fresh roll goes on the dispenser, write the date and the day's order count on its core sticker. When it runs out, write them again. Orders packed ÷ rolls used gives you orders per roll. I like this method best, because it is very difficult to get wrong.
2. The pull count. For one day, the packer makes a tally mark for every sheet torn off. Measure ten sheets for an average. Sheets × average length gives expanded metres, which you convert with your ratio.
3. The weight check. Weigh the roll before and after a shift, and note the orders packed. Grams used ÷ (GSM × flat width in metres) gives flat metres.

Run at least one full shift, and include your slowest and your fastest packer. One careful packer on a quiet morning gives a number that will not survive the festive rush.

Then compare the line figure with the worked figure.

If they are far apart, do not order yet. Go back to the bench and count the real layers and measure a few real sheets. Then watch for tears at the start of each pull, because torn starts add up quietly.

Waste is part of usage

Some paper never reaches a customer. Think of the first pull from a new roll, a sheet that tore, or a wrap a supervisor asked to redo.

Count it, because you pay for it.

If waste looks high, check the dispenser brake and the storage before you blame the packers. Damp paper tears more easily, and a brake set too tight tears good paper. Our guide to honeycomb paper dispensers covers the brake.

Peaks, seasons and sale days

Monthly averages hide peaks.

For an Indian online seller, the weeks before Diwali can look nothing like June. For an exporter's customer in Europe, the peak may be November and December instead.

I would forecast the peak month on its own. Paper is bulky, so build peak stock over a few weeks rather than taking it all in one delivery.

Safety stock and when to reorder

The reorder point is the stock level at which you place your next order. The formula is simple:

Reorder point = paper used during your restocking time + safety stock.

Restocking time is the number of days from placing an order to having rolls on your own shelf. It includes transport and your own receiving. Use your real figure, not the best case your transporter promised.

Take the shop above. At 17 rolls a month, it uses a little over 4 rolls a week. Suppose restocking takes three weeks. That is about 13 rolls used while it waits. Add about one week's use, roughly 4 rolls, as safety stock for a late truck or a busy week. The shop should reorder when its stock falls to about 17 rolls.

I cannot give you one right size for the safety stock. It depends on how much your weekly consumption swings and how reliable your restocking is. A steady business with a nearby supplier needs less. An importer waiting on sea freight needs more.

Too much safety stock has a cost as well. Paper that waits for months in a damp store can come out weaker than it went in, and our guide to storage and humidity explains why.

For distributors: forecasting for your customers

A distributor forecasts in two layers: the customer's consumption, and then its own inventory. We sell to distributors as well as to brands, so we see both sides of this. When a new customer asks for honeycomb paper, I would ask them five things:

1. Their top products and the sizes of each.
2. Orders per month now, and in their busiest month.
3. Average items per order.
4. Whether they use a dispenser, and which type.
5. How long they can wait for a delivery from you.

These are the same five questions we will ask you, if you come to us for stock.

Then give them a trial roll and ask them to run the roll count. Two weeks of real data are worth more than any number from a sales call.

Add up your customers' monthly use, apply your own restocking time and buffer, and you have your stock plan. Watch any customer whose use suddenly jumps. It may be growth. It may also be a new packer putting five layers where three would do. Both deserve a phone call.

If you would like a second pair of eyes on your numbers, send us your product sizes and order volumes through our contact page. We are happy to work through the calculation with you, even if you buy your paper elsewhere.